Israelis Decide Prime Minister's Fate

Benjamin Netanyahu faces a direct challenge in Tuesday's election, a vote that has become less about traditional left-right divides and more about his personal tenure. He first assumed the premiership 30 years ago and has held the post for 19 of those three decades. Current polling shows the pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu camps running nearly even.

The race will be decided in a parliament of 120 seats. No single bloc is expected to command a majority. The outcome likely hinges on whether anti-Netanyahu Jewish parties, who are forecast to outpoll his coalition but fall short of a majority, will accept support from parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel. That group constitutes approximately one-fifth of the national population.

Gadi Eisenkot leads the opposition effort as the primary challenger. A former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff and the son of working-class Moroccan Jews, he entered politics four years ago. His party, Yashar, translates to straight or direct. Eisenkot advocates for US-style term limits for the prime minister, arguing that power corrupts. He describes his goal as creating a country without lies.

At a recent rally in Modi'in, a city located between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, supporters praised Eisenkot's plain speaking style. Noa Sadeh, 56, said she is tired of politicians who know how to talk. She wants a leader who will focus on the doing part. Eisenkot's bloc also includes former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, both right-wing figures who previously worked with Netanyahu before falling out with him.

On the far right, Yishai Fleisher of the Otzma Yehudit party told voters in Bet Shemesh that Netanyahu drifts too far left. He proposed expanding settlements in the West Bank and Gaza, creating a ministry to encourage the voluntary departure of Palestinians, and implementing the death penalty. He also called for providing more weapons to Jewish civilians.

Netanyahu has framed the choice for voters using posters that contrast Yamin, meaning right, with Falastin. He placed opposition leaders alongside party heads representing Palestinian citizens. His durability rests on a loyal base built over three decades. This support persists despite the 7 October 2023 attacks, which killed over 70,000 Palestinians in the subsequent Gaza war. Israel stated that one-third of those killed were Hamas combatants. The war did not eradicate Hamas, and Netanyahu faces ongoing issues including a corruption trial and the Qatargate affair.

Observers are puzzled by the close polling given these challenges. Oded Levi, who voted for Netanyahu in 2022 but attended the Eisenkot rally, said the current prime minister is responsible for the state of the country. Netanyahu's allies claim army and intelligence chiefs kept him in the dark regarding the 2023 attack, a claim they have not fully substantiated. He is viewed as a skilled coalition builder who may outmaneuver rivals in post-election talks.

Many liberal, secular expatriate Israelis are returning home to vote, a demographic that pollsters often miss. This turnout could matter if the result turns on a single seat. Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats party and a former general, expressed optimism that opposition leaders can agree on a regional strategic process. He avoided using the term peace process, noting the word has been tainted for many Israelis. However, a recent video showed young Israelis singing Shir LaShalom, the song Yitzhak Rabin sang before his assassination in 1995, at a music festival in the Negev.