Lula takes 51 percent of vote to secure fourth term

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won a record fourth non-consecutive term as Brazil's president on Sunday.

The 80-year-old leftist defeated right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of jailed former President Jair Bolsonaro, in the final run-off. Electoral authorities declared Lula the winner once approximately 98.76 percent of ballots had been counted. He captured more than 51 percent of the vote compared to Bolsonaro's 48 percent.

The race remained uncertain until the final hours, with polls showing the two candidates virtually tied in the days before the election. Three weeks earlier, on October 4, Bolsonaro had won the first round with 47.03 percent of the vote against Lula's 45.16 percent. That margin represented a gap of 2.2 million votes. Lula subsequently focused on persuading abstaining voters to return to the polls, emphasizing the cost of living and the continuation of his social programmes.

Results from the northeast, a traditional stronghold for Lula and the Workers' Party, shifted the balance in his favor. Bolsonaro maintained support in the south, southeast, and centre-west regions. No candidate in modern Brazilian history has previously finished second in the first round and then won the subsequent run-off.

The election process was complicated by a last-minute decision to extend voting hours. Both campaigns requested additional time, with Lula's team arguing that local officials cut public transport in several cities, hindering lower-income voters. Bolsonaro's campaign cited heavy rain and flooding. In Minas Gerais, the regional electoral court reported that 349 polling locations lost power, though machines operated on backup batteries according to local media.

Voting was scheduled to end at 5 p.m. Brasilia time. Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin ordered stations to remain open until 7 p.m., but the directive arrived after some locations had already closed. Zanin clarified that stations which had shut down would not reopen. This created confusion, and some voters were turned away despite the extension.

Bolsonaro pledged to annul the vote, accusing Zanin of judicial malfeasance. He noted that Lula appointed Zanin to the Supreme Court in 2023 after Zanin served as his personal lawyer. Bolsonaro told supporters that it was impossible to recognize the results. Brazil's Federal Police are investigating transport disruptions in five states, while a court in Salvador ordered the arrest of the city's transport secretary over bus service cuts.

Turnout differences may have influenced the outcome. Andrei Roman, head of AtlasIntel, cited a drop in abstention as a factor for Lula. In the first round, an estimated 33.4 million Brazilians, or 21 percent of the electorate, stayed home, the highest rate since 1998. Lula also promised free public transport on weekends to his working-class base. In his victory speech, Lula said the election was a defeat for denialism and lies, noting he had to overcome outside interference.