Brazil Runoff: Service Economy Shifts Loyalty in Osasco

Brazil heads into a presidential runoff on Sunday with a political map altered by economic change. The contest between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro is being reshaped by the decline of manufacturing and the rise of the service sector.

In Osasco, a city near São Paulo often called the local Silicon Valley, this shift is visible. Shopping malls and delivery app offices have replaced closed factories. The municipality voted for Lula in 2022 but backed Flávio Bolsonaro in this month's first round. Bolsonaro leads nationally after that vote, maintaining a streak where every first-round winner since 1989 has become president.

Gilberto Almazan, who leads a local metalworkers' union, describes the loss of industrial jobs as a structural break. He notes that metal, chemical, and textile plants vanished, allowing for the construction of five malls. Almazan characterizes the traditional union movement that supported Lula's rise as outdated.

Many workers now earn their living as drivers, couriers, or small traders, a trend Almazan terms Uber-isation. He argues that these workers value schedule flexibility over the collective benefits Lula has traditionally provided. Richard Lapper, a biographer of both presidents, states that Brazil industrialized late and deindustrialized quickly. He calls Lula a victim of his own success.

Economic indicators show improvement under Lula, with unemployment at a record low and the country removed from the UN Hunger Map. However, Lapper cites a crisis of expectations driven by high prices, debt, and interest rates. Robson, a 53-year-old civil servant and former Lula supporter, blames government mismanagement for the tax burden. Tairine, a hot dog seller who previously abstained, now plans to vote for Bolsonaro, stating that nothing has changed since Lula returned.

Gisele Bonfim, a lawyer who voted for Lula in 2022, says Flávio Bolsonaro offers the hope of change. Bolsonaro has proposed cutting government spending and ministries while retaining some welfare programs. He denies facing corruption accusations. In the first round, 33 million people did not vote, the highest abstention rate since 1998.

Lula's campaign is mobilizing large crowds to counter the narrative. The team claims a rally in São Paulo drew about a million people, a figure supported by widely shared aerial footage. Lula, 80, has used social media to address age concerns, referring to himself as the king of selfies.

Among the poorest voters, Lula's welfare record remains a strong factor. In Maré, a large favela in Rio, abstention was high, but Lula still won the local vote. Vitoria, an 18-year-old mother earning under 300 pounds a month, cites the minimum wage increase and free medicines as reasons to support the incumbent. She doubts Bolsonaro's plan to designate the Comando Vermelho gang a terrorist organization, citing a police raid in Rio last year that killed more than 130 people.

Andreza Dionísio, a resident of Maré, blames last-minute polling station changes and a sense of hopelessness for low turnout. Evangelical churches, attended by about a quarter of Brazilians, are filling gaps with childcare and food services. Pastor Silas Malafaia, who is under investigation for allegedly obstructing Jair Bolsonaro's coup trial, says Flávio Bolsonaro shares the church's values on family and abortion. Almazan fears there will never be another Lula.

The outcome will depend on whether voters believe the incumbent can adapt to a new economic reality. The first round results indicated a rejection of the status quo rather than a full endorsement of the opposition. With 33 million voters staying home in the first round, the final count on Sunday will determine if the service sector can sustain its new political influence.