Gulf Conflict: Third War Phase Predicted After Nov. 3 Votes

The United States and Israel may resume war with Iran immediately after the November 3 midterm elections, according to analysts who predict a third round of fighting that will be more destructive than the previous two. Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst who spent over two decades in military intelligence, stated that a renewed war seems almost inevitable. He now works with the Institute for National Security Studies and believes President Donald Trump faces only bad and worse options in the Persian Gulf.

Two separate wars have occurred over the past 18 months under the Trump and Netanyahu administrations. The first conflict began in June 2025 with strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and ended in a fragile ceasefire after 12 days. Fighting returned in February following a large U.S. military buildup, opening with Israeli strikes on Iran's senior leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Citrinowicz expects the next phase to target Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and communications lines under the Strait of Hormuz.

The conflict has continued despite a lack of fresh strikes on major bases. The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports, while Iran targets commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, raising global energy costs. On Thursday, Trump accused Iran of inflating oil prices before the midterms by creating fake hits and mines. A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agreed that vessel attacks aim to pressure Washington into meeting Iranian demands for sanctions relief, reparations, and the release of frozen assets.

Diplomatic efforts by mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have failed to restart talks. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that retaliation from proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah could target soft economic sites such as airports. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that Trump lacks a clear goal and that no military knockout punch will force Iran to capitulate. He noted that Iran would only compromise under existential economic pressure paired with a limited diplomatic exit.

The human toll remains heavy, with Western NGOs reporting more than 7,000 deaths in Iran. Lebanese media report over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members and more than 70 Israelis have been killed, with additional deaths recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen. The Pentagon is currently drafting a new battle plan, though it is unknown whether Trump will approve it.

Political calculations in both countries may drive the next escalation. Netanyahu has spoken of finishing the job and faces a close election in the coming days. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu form an emergency unity government. He warned that political strategy combined with an inflated Iranian development could produce an unnecessary attack. Sadjadpour maintained that diplomacy is not dead but has been narrowed by maximalist aims.