Poll: 66.4% of Lebanese Shi'ites Favor State Control of Hezbollah Weapons

A survey released in mid-October found that 66.4% of Lebanese Shi'ites want Hezbollah to hand its arsenal to the Lebanese state, while 29.6% said the group should keep the weapons. Statistics Lebanon conducted the poll in September among 800 Shi'ite respondents. Hezbollah has argued that its weapons are necessary to defend Lebanon against Israel.

The poll also asked who should decide matters of war and peace. Kataeb.org, the website of the Christian Kataeb Party that opposes Hezbollah, reported that 71.1% of respondents said such decisions belong to the Lebanese state alone. It said 5.9% believed Hezbollah's leadership should have a larger role in shaping the country's future. The results were reported by Israel's public broadcaster KAN and Kataeb.org.

Trust in the Lebanese Armed Forces ran higher than trust in Hezbollah. About 78.5% of respondents said they trusted the army, and 51.1% identified it as the institution best placed to provide long-term security. Hezbollah drew 16.5% on that question.

Opinions on Hezbollah's own performance were more divided. Some 67.4% said Hezbollah failed to meet its goals in the war with Israel or met only some of them, and 42.1% voiced disappointment, anger or concern about its leadership and the consequences of the conflict. Even so, 59.5% expressed some trust in the group, including 37.1% who reported a great deal of trust. Roi Kais of KAN noted that the support networks and status Hezbollah has given the community still sustain its strength, provided no other entity fills that space.

An earlier survey pointed the other way. A May 2026 poll by Lebanon's Information International, cited by researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni in a June 10 analysis for Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, found 87.5% of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah and 7.9% supported giving up its weapons; more than 90% opposed ties with Israel. The difference from the September figures raises questions about how question wording shaped the results.

Mizrahi and Levanoni wrote that Hezbollah's influence rests on its social and economic networks, its political power, and the historical marginalization of Lebanon's Shi'ites. They also said intimidation has discouraged dissent within the community. In their assessment, weakening the group would require a stronger Lebanese army plus Western and Gulf financial support so the state can replace the services Hezbollah provides.

Hezbollah has lost major military and leadership figures, including Hassan Nasrallah, killed in September 2024. A new war began in March 2026 and caused heavy destruction in villages across southern Lebanon. Hezbollah announced aid of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 for those elsewhere.