Hegseth Orders Troops to Stop Betting on Military Outcomes

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued a directive on October 20 instructing military personnel to stop using nonpublic information to place bets on prediction markets. The memo warns that such financial activity creates signals that adversaries can exploit to anticipate American military movements.

The document, titled "Do Not Compromise Military Operations for Personal Financial Gain," was distributed to senior Pentagon leaders, Combatant Command heads, and directors of Defense Department field activities. CBS News published the text on October 22. Hegseth argued that hostile foreign intelligence services aggregate and correlate data from these platforms to identify targets and timing.

"They create a signal," Hegseth wrote in the memo. He stated that when a service member or intelligence professional makes a financial transaction tied to a military outcome, it provides clues to enemies. The secretary emphasized that the lives of service members often depend on the enemy not knowing what is coming next.

The prohibition applies to all financial platforms, including traditional betting services and specific prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. Personnel are barred from making any financial transaction informed by nonpublic information, whether that data is classified or unclassified. Hegseth added that those who carry the flag into harm's way deserve a force that protects them rather than one that exposes them for personal gain.

The directive follows a specific incident in April when a US Army soldier was arrested and charged with using confidential information. That soldier made $410,000 in Polymarket bets regarding the timing of the military's capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The memo cites this case as a primary example of how private stakes can compromise operations.

Concerns about the practice have grown beyond individual cases. An August report from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective identified 152 suspicious wallets that placed longshot bets on military and defense markets. Those wallets won a combined $8 million. Hegseth's memo frames this betting as a threat to judgment, warning that personal financial stakes in military outcomes can put troops at risk.