Texas Border Polls Show Democratic Lead in Redrawn Republican Districts

Polls conducted in the Rio Grande Valley since late summer show a Democratic lead of five to six points in Texas's 15th congressional district. This district was redrawn in 2025 to provide Republicans with a notional 18-point majority. The data suggests the gains Donald Trump made among Hispanic voters in 2024 are eroding ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.

Trump captured approximately 55% of the Hispanic vote in Texas during his 2024 presidential campaign, a record for a Republican candidate. That shift was driven largely by the Rio Grande Valley, a region that served as one of the busiest crossing points on the US-Mexico border. Under former President Joe Biden, authorities recorded more than 2.5 million apprehensions in a single year in the area. Trump pledged to end illegal crossings during his campaign, and border crossings are now at their lowest levels in decades.

Despite the reduction in crossings, recent surveys indicate a majority of Hispanic voters in Texas now disapprove of the president and favor Democratic candidates over Republicans. The shift is visible in local politics and community sentiment. Father Roy Snipes, a priest at the La Lomita Catholic Chapel near the Rio Grande, preached to about 30 worshippers about the actions of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. He stated, "There's no good excuse to detain, incarcerate and deport poor, good folks who are our neighbours." Government figures obtained by the Deportation Data Project show Texas accounted for roughly one-third of all ICE arrests nationwide in July 2026.

Business owners in the region cite workforce shortages as a primary concern. Mario Guerrero, a Mexican-American businessman who leads the South Texas Builders Association, voted for Trump three times but plans to support a Democrat in November. Guerrero noted that an acquaintance's crew of 35 daily workers has shrunk to just four or six employees. He argued that voters were not informed about the extent of the administration's enforcement actions. Republican consultant Mike Madrid observed that Latinos are more likely than any other group to identify as political independents, complicating the vote count.

Javier Villalobos, the Republican mayor of McAllen, acknowledged the difficulty of the upcoming race while crediting the administration for securing the border. He explained that most residents accept the deportation of criminals, but the process becomes contentious when applied to productive, law-abiding individuals. At a local avocado festival, voters Dave Baldwin and Veronica Salazar blamed the president for rising prices. Baldwin said, "He is in control of our destiny with all that, and right now he's not doing a very good job."

Democratic candidate Bobby Pulido, a Tejano singer and two-time Latin Grammy winner, has focused his campaign on the local economy rather than the national party brand. He told supporters, "This isn't New York, this isn't LA." Republican campaigners recognize they are at a disadvantage. Student volunteer Alexis Uscanga described the midterms as "purely a game of turnout." Tano Tijerina, the Republican candidate in the neighboring 28th district, admitted that while Trump has "broken through barriers," the "national political headwinds are real."

If the polling reflects the final vote, a modest swing back to Democrats could reshape the political map in Texas. The state has not sent a Democrat to the US Senate in more than 30 years. The current numbers suggest the race for that seat is now in play.

Republicans had hoped the 2024 shift in Hispanic support was permanent. That expectation was part of the reason Trump pressured Texas officials to redraw congressional maps early. The new polling data indicates that the early redraws may not secure the expected Republican majorities in the border districts.