Maricopa County ranks among three highest-risk election districts in the United States

Maricopa County received the maximum score of 100 on the 2026 Election Risk Heat Map released by the Voting Rights Lab. This places the Arizona jurisdiction in the highest risk category for manipulation of election outcomes. Only two other counties in the nation achieved this score: Fulton County and Forsyth County in Georgia.

The lab’s methodology evaluates several specific variables to determine risk levels. These factors include the competitiveness of local races, the number of candidates and election officials who deny election results, and the frequency of election-related lawsuits. The analysis also weighs the percentage of voters using mail ballots, the duration of ballot counting processes, and the presence of state-level anti-democracy groups. Local agreements with Immigration and Customs Enforcement are also part of the calculation.

Maricopa County is the fourth-largest municipality in the country. It has just over two million registered voters. Only Los Angeles County and Cook County in Illinois report higher voter turnout figures nationwide. Victoria Lopez, executive director of the ACLU of Arizona, stated that the votes of residents in this county are highly consequential. She noted that specific threats exist to the ability of voters to exercise their right to cast a ballot.

The county has experienced multiple administrative issues in the months preceding the November election. County Recorder Justin Heap used the federal SAVE database to flag 60 voters as potential non-citizens earlier this year. An investigation by County Attorney Rachell Mitchell determined that only eight were actually non-citizens. Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes filed a lawsuit against Heap after he refused to restore the registration status of 24 citizen voters. A court mediation in late October resulted in the restoration of their status.

Runbeck Election Services mailed more than 3,000 ballots earlier than intended. The Recorder’s office phone line briefly broadcast the incorrect date for Election Day to callers. Heap asserted that the Phoenix USPS processing facility was shut down, forcing ballots to be rerouted through San Diego. Secretary of State Adrian Fontes and the USPS disputed that claim. The ACLU of Arizona reported that poll workers told voters at one center that identification was required to drop off ballots, a claim Heap called baseless. The Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Center also experienced a brief lockdown due to suspicious activity nearby.

The lab labeled the county as extreme risk based on these events. Maricopa County scored five out of five on the local election denial risk metric. Several officials who deny election results are currently running for top offices, including the governorship. The county also received a perfect score in the election litigation environment index due to high activity involving groups like CyberNinjas and former candidate Kari Lake.

Structural factors contribute to the high risk score. The county maintains a formal relationship with ICE through its jail system. Nearly 84 percent of voters cast ballots by mail in 2022. In 2024, election officials required nearly 121 hours to count 95 percent of ballots, according to the lab’s data.

The ACLU of Arizona is launching a 400,000 dollar advertising campaign to address these risks more than a week before the election. The organization aims to remind local election officials that the group is monitoring compliance with the law. The campaign includes online ads, highway billboards, and LED trucks. It also features aerial banners pulled by small planes, one of which flew over Arizona State University’s football game against Kansas on Saturday.

Lopez stated that the organization wants to provide Arizonans with clear and accurate information about their voting rights. The ACLU is preparing to address administration issues on Election Day, such as polling locations opening late or closing early. The organization is also monitoring signature verification processes and any unlawful purges of voters. The campaign slogan reads Arizona voters, not politicians, decide elections.