Shoresh Study: Arab Education Boom Faces Political Stalemate

Dan Ben-David, president of the Shoresh Institution for Socioeconomic Research, stated that Israel is at risk of losing out on the economic growth generated by its Arab citizens. In an analysis published on Wednesday, he linked this potential loss to the current deadlock in forming a new government. Ben-David argued that the political impasse results from a refusal to treat Arab elected officials as equal partners.

The tension emerged after the October 27 election, which left no single bloc with a clear majority. Ra’am and the Joint List together hold 19 seats in the Knesset. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s outgoing coalition controlled 53 seats, while Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc secured 48. The opposition now faces the decision of whether to include Arab parties in a governing structure or rely on their external support.

Leaders in the opposition have generally favored a minority government that avoids direct reliance on Arab ministers. Avigdor Liberman, head of Yisrael Beytenu, supported Eisenkot for the prime ministerial role but explicitly rejected a government dependent on Arab parties. On Tuesday, opposition leaders agreed to form what they called a Zionist government. Yair Golan, chair of the Democrats, met with Joint List leaders to plan strategies for removing Netanyahu from power.

Negotiations are complicated by Eisenkot’s specific demands regarding the state’s character. He requires the reduction of Hamas’s military and governing power as a condition for partnership. Arab parties, in turn, want greater control over policing, housing, and public spending. These divergent priorities have made the talks a dispute over national identity as much as over arithmetic.

Ben-David’s data shows a sharp increase in educational attainment within Arab communities. The percentage of Muslim women aged 35 to 54 holding an academic degree rose from 4.7% in 2004 to 22.9% in 2024. This represents a nearly fivefold increase over twenty years. Similar trends appear in other groups, with degree holders among Christian Arab women rising from 16.3% to 50.3% and among Druze women from 6.7% to 23.8%.

Household spending patterns reflect this shift. Education’s share of Arab household budgets increased from 3.7% between 2011 and 2013 to 4.8% between 2021 and 2023. Ben-David noted that families are using private schools and tutors to make up for gaps in public education. He described these financial choices as evidence of a desire to integrate into the Israeli economy.

These gains in education exist alongside persistent challenges. In the 2025 PISA assessment, Arabic-speaking students in Israel scored lower than peers in six of the seven participating Arab nations. Despite this, Arabic speakers make up 23% of the first-grade student population. Ben-David cited the drop in the Muslim fertility rate to 2.8 children per woman in 2022 and 2024 as another sign of socioeconomic change. He criticized the political establishment for viewing this transformation with blindness, warning that current decisions will affect all citizens for years to come.