Palestinian parties win 17 seats, forcing coalition math in Israel

Israeli voters have cast decisive ballots that reshape the balance of power in Jerusalem. Exit polls released Tuesday indicate Palestinian parties will secure between 17 and 18 seats in the new Knesset, a sharp increase from the 10 seats they held previously.

The opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot appears to hold a narrow lead over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition. However, the path to a majority government now depends on whether Eisenkot can form a working alliance with Arab Israeli representatives. His rivals argue that ignoring this new demographic weight hands Netanyahu a strategic victory.

The political dynamics in Israel have shifted over the past year. Netanyahu’s coalition has remained in a caretaker role while the opposition bloc, which includes Naftali Bennett as a junior partner, seeks to assemble a majority. The current configuration requires Eisenkot to negotiate with two distinct Palestinian groupings: Ra’am and the Joint List.

Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, is projected to win seven seats. Abbas previously served in Bennett’s right-leaning government and has a Jewish deputy. He stated on Tuesday that his primary goal is to defeat Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir. Eisenkot’s camp views Ra’am as a potential partner due to this prior experience.

The Joint List is projected to win at least 10 seats. Eisenkot has set four conditions for cooperation: recognition of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, acceptance of the declaration of independence, acceptance of conscription for Palestinian citizens, and the denunciation of Hamas as a terrorist organization. Amjad Shbita, general secretary of Hadash, the largest faction within the Joint List, rejected these preconditions.

Shbita said, “Laying down conditions won’t work with the Joint List. We will negotiate as equals because we need each other.” This stance complicates Eisenkot’s ability to form a stable coalition. If he cannot secure a formal agreement with either group, he may attempt to govern as a minority, relying on informal vote-by-vote deals to pass legislation.

President Isaac Herzog holds discretion over who he asks first to form a government. If the first candidate fails to build a majority within six weeks, the mandate passes to the next option. This process could extend for months, keeping Netanyahu in a caretaker role. Eisenkot will argue his bloc is larger and better positioned to negotiate.

In the early hours of Wednesday, officials from the Joint List gathered in Nazareth. One party official noted that the Zionist opposition faces a choice between maintaining supremacy or building democracy. The election results will determine whether this new configuration leads to a stable government or another round of voting.