Serbia's Tight Vote: Vučić Faces Student Bloc

Serbians head to the polls on Sunday for a parliamentary election that analysts expect to be extremely close. The contest pits Aleksandar Vučić, who has led the country in various capacities since 2012, against a student-driven movement that has no nominated leader or hierarchy. Reliable polls are scarce, but the race marks a stark departure from Serbia's recent democratic history.

The Student List emerged from nearly two years of anti-corruption protests triggered by a tragedy in Novi Sad, the country's second city. Sixteen people died when a canopy collapsed at a railway station. Rather than selecting a single figurehead, student assemblies at university faculties chose 250 candidates. Ilija Srdanović, a cardiologist and professor at Novi Sad University, tops the list. He described his role as supporting his students in a fair struggle while wearing a fluorescent yellow jacket with pro-student slogans during a BBC interview.

Vučić, who stepped down as president last month to run for prime minister, maintains strong support among voters who view him as a defender of national interests. He points to economic growth and infrastructure improvements over the past decade. However, he has characterized the student movement as foreign-backed and intent on bringing down the state. His party, the Serbian Progressive Party, has dominated state institutions and media for years. An International Election Observation Mission noted an overwhelming ruling party advantage in the 2023 vote due to media bias and the misuse of public resources.

The Novi Sad disaster remains Vučić's biggest political liability because the station renovation was part of his flagship high-speed rail project linking Belgrade to Budapest. Magda Anastasijevic, an analyst at ACLED, said Vučić usually survives crises by finding scapegoats, but the canopy collapse did not allow for that. Foreign policy has also become a campaign issue, with Vučić warning that close ties with Russia and China could be lost if the Student List wins.

The final days of the campaign highlighted the contrast between the two sides. The ruling party filled Belgrade Arena with Vučić as the sole speaker. Meanwhile, a reported 150,000 people gathered in Slavija Square to hear from students and candidates. Voters now weigh a single strong leader against a collective approach of academics, athletes, and engineers with no prior political background.

A student named Aleksandra described the lack of political experience among the candidates as a strength, noting that the group gathered the best people in their fields. The Student List has no formal leader, meaning Srdanović would not necessarily become prime minister if the group wins. Vučić's party did not respond to interview requests from the BBC, while a pro-government camp in central Belgrade has occupied a small park for 18 months, a presence Vučić calls a symbol of resistance.