Knesset math hinges on Arab seats

Polls place the fate of Israel's next government in the hands of a small number of seats held by Palestinian citizens.

In Kfar Qasim, residents gathered at sunset for cardamom coffee and knafeh to hear candidates pitch their platforms. This community represents roughly 20% of the national population. Their participation in next week's election may break the legislative deadlock.

Current forecasts suggest Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition will lose its majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The Jewish Israeli opposition bloc is also expected to fall short of the 61 seats required to govern. Palestinian parties are projected to secure between 12 and 15 seats. These seats will be split between the Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List. The Joint List includes Ta'al and two other smaller parties.

Ahmad Tibi, who leads Ta'al and has served in the Knesset for over two decades, stated that high turnout among the Arab community is a critical tool. He said the community is determined to use this leverage to bring the current government down.

Jewish Israeli opposition leaders have largely ruled out forming a coalition with Arab politicians. Netanyahu and his allies have campaigned to make such an alliance politically toxic. Campaign posters have displayed slogans such as "It's [either] the right or Palestine" and "Bibi or Tibi." Historically, only two Palestinian ministers have served in the Israeli cabinet. Raleb Majadele held the sport portfolio for two years, while Issawi Frej handled regional coordination for just over a year.

Past precedents suggest political barriers may fall once results arrive. In 2021, Mansour Abbas brought Ra'am into a coalition with Naftali Bennett. Bennett is now part of the opposition bloc. Netanyahu himself previously opened coalition talks with Abbas. A prospective voter named Mohammed, who manages mixed staff at a hi-tech company, noted that the final outcome relies on simple arithmetic. He urged friends of all backgrounds to vote, arguing that the math will force the opposition's hand.

Forming an alliance remains difficult for Palestinian leaders as well. Most opposition parties do not call for a two-state solution and oppose a Palestinian state. They also support the settlement movement in the occupied West Bank. Tibi described the choice as one between bad and worse, pitting Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir against the opposition alternatives.

Fear drives much of the current voter motivation. The death and destruction in Gaza, militant violence in the West Bank, and rising domestic discrimination have increased anxiety. Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, identified fear as the biggest motivation. He said voters understand the danger of the current ruling group returning to power.

Past distrust of the political system has suppressed turnout. Last month, Israel's supreme court effectively removed Abu Shehadeh from the race over an article regarding the 7 October Hamas-led attacks. Critics argued the ruling applied different free speech standards to Jewish and Palestinian citizens. A motion to disqualify national security minister Itamar Ben Gvir for racist language, including calls for ethnic cleansing, was not upheld. Some residents, including Haaretz journalist Nagham Zbeidat, abstain on principle. She stated she refuses to legitimize a system that treats her rights as favors.

Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group noted that a returning far-right coalition would have a renewed mandate to accelerate policies of annexation. He described the vote as a measure of mitigation rather than a solution. The election takes place two days before Kfar Qasim marks the 1956 massacre, in which border police killed 49 men, women, and children who had broken a curfew. Iraqi said the lack of clarity about the future contributes to a widespread feeling of powerlessness.

The election is scheduled for next week. Kfar Qasim will observe the anniversary of the 1956 massacre two days after voting concludes.