Lula mobilizes Copacabana crowd ahead of Brazilian runoff

Brazilian politics reached a critical juncture on Saturday as tens of thousands gathered at Copacabana beach in Rio de Janeiro.

The crowd supported President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the final days before a presidential runoff against far-right rival Flávio Bolsonaro.

Voting takes place on Sunday, with approximately 159 million Brazilians eligible to cast ballots.

Bolsonaro secured a narrow lead in the first round held on October 4, capturing 47% of the vote compared to Lula's 45%.

Historical data indicates that no candidate who lost the initial round has won the subsequent runoff since the return of democracy in the 1980s.

Lula's victory would therefore break a long-standing political pattern.

Supporters dressed in red filled the 2.5-mile stretch of the beach under bright sunlight.

Activists displayed a large yellow and green banner that read "WE ARE GOING TO TURN THIS AROUND!".

Josias Silva, a 61-year-old truck driver, held a homemade sign stating "Lula re-elected. Tomorrow will be a new day."

Silva described the recent student-led street protests as evidence that the public has engaged, predicting a victory margin exceeding 60% for Lula.

Current polling data suggests the race is considerably tighter than that projection.

Most analysts view Bolsonaro as the slight favorite in the contest so far ahead of the final weekend events, but Lula has gained ground in recent weeks amid scandals involving his opponent, including a report by Piauí magazine alleging he attended a boat party with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists during the 2020 pandemic peak. The party was held while seeking a deal with his father's government. The son has positioned himself as a tough-on-crime candidate, a stance that resonates with many voters despite recent political developments. For many on the left, the election carries stakes beyond standard partisan politics. Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio's father, is serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election. Democrats fear he may be released or return to power if his son wins. Press reports suggest several of Jair Bolsonaro's co-conspirators, currently jailed or in exile, could receive senior military and police appointments. Marta Moraes, a 59-year-old restaurateur, identified her opposition as targeting "Bolsonarismo" rather than the right broadly, noting she lost four relatives due to Jair Bolsonaro's handling of the pandemic. Many attendees were part of "Lula's Army," a WhatsApp group with 10 million members created after the first round. Isabella Gaze, a 64-year-old retired teacher, characterized the event as "This isn't a normal election." Cammy Marinho, a 49-year-old DJ and activist, spent two weeks attempting to persuade Bolsonaro supporters and abstainers to change their votes. Heitor Lopes da Silva, 14, traveled from Duque de Caxias in a wheelchair carrying a placard in support of the president. Bolsonaro's supporters also organized street rallies. In Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais, thousands gathered at Praça da Liberdade wearing yellow jerseys and waving Brazilian and US flags. Minas Gerais holds the second-largest electorate in the country and is considered a bellwether state; no candidate has won the presidency without carrying it. Bolsonaro led in this state by nearly 5% in the first round. Antonio Carlos Costa Jr, a 59-year-old shooting club owner, defended Bolsonaro's security platform, arguing that Jair Bolsonaro granted citizens the right to self-defense and his son would follow suit. Security experts note that Jair Bolsonaro's relaxation of gun laws diverted many firearms to criminal gangs, while Lula has since tightened regulations. Lula's backers question Bolsonaro's ability to curb crime, given his documented ties to Rio's paramilitary militias. Erika Cavalcante, a 43-year-old architect, carried a sign that read "Don't let the mobsters win."