Latino Voters Reject Trump Ahead of Midterms

Latino voters in the United States have turned sharply against President Donald Trump and the Republican Party in the weeks leading up to the November 3 midterm elections. Recent polling indicates that only 27 percent of Latino adults approve of the president, a figure that reflects a nearly 20-point decline since the 2024 presidential race. This shift places the group at the center of a competitive national contest where both parties are vying for their support.

In the 2024 election, Trump won an outright majority of Latino men, marking a historic high for Republican support among that demographic. However, the current political climate has shifted. By October, just 26 percent of Hispanic respondents in a Reuters/Ipsos poll said they planned to vote Republican for the midterms. Strategists note that the era of a stable 75-to-25 split favoring Democrats is over, replaced by a more volatile electorate that judges parties based on current performance rather than ethnic affinity.

The change in sentiment stems from specific policy grievances. Latino voters have cited the cost of living, inflation, and jobs as their top priorities, followed closely by immigration and deportations. A 2025 Pew Research survey found that the label of socialists remains unpopular among the group, yet support for Democratic Socialist of America candidates has surged in key races. This trend is evident in primary results across the country, where DSA-backed candidates have defeated more established Democrats.

In New York, Rep. Adriano Espaillat was defeated in the Democratic primary by Darializa Avila Chevalier, a DSA challenger who is 40 years younger. In Florida, state representative Angie Nixon, backed by the DSA, defeated retired Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman in the Senate primary. Nixon won by large margins in heavily Latino counties, including Miami-Dade and Broward. She now faces incumbent Sen. Ashley Moody in a special election to fill the seat vacated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Immigration enforcement has become a central driver of voter dissatisfaction. The Trump administration’s expansion of Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection into large national police forces has altered how voters view the issue. In South Texas, particularly the Rio Grande Valley, voter turnout in the Democratic primary earlier this year exceeded the turnout for Kamala Harris in the 2024 general election. This surge helped State Rep. James Talarico secure his Senate nomination and contribute to his polling lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Political strategist Mike Madrid, a former Republican operative, described Latino voters as the only rational actors in the system because they withhold loyalty when parties fail to deliver on promises. He cited the violent tactics used in immigration apprehensions, such as agents arresting people outside schools and job sites, as a key factor in the shift. While some Republican officials like Bettina Rodriguez argue that promises on the economy and border security have been kept, the data shows a significant portion of the electorate has moved away from the GOP in the final stretch of the campaign.

The 2026 election will test whether this backlash translates into a generational realignment or if it remains a temporary shift. With 36 million eligible Latino adults, their voting patterns will determine the outcome in dozens of House and Senate races. The group’s focus remains on kitchen-table issues, including consumer prices and healthcare, but the intensity of immigration enforcement has elevated that topic to a top-tier priority for the first time in decades.